Above: Westlake’s NBA win odds, Sep 24th 2019
Teams are ranked here by average number of regular season wins within the simulation. The statline reads: (Average Wins, Vegas Differential, High-Low wins, Playoff Points, Championships where applicable) or (AW, VD, H/L, PP, 💍). The Vegas Differential is the average wins minus Vegas’ current win total odds — I used Westgate’s here from September 24, which I’ve also screenshotted in case it changes.
If you’d like a decent rundown of what “the experts” think as well, check out ESPN’s recent consolidated predictions. Lots of interesting stuff in there about how chaotic things might get, but my favorite is that they predict the Lakers to finish fifth in the West in the regular season … but give them the fourth-best chance of winning the championship.
1. Los Angeles Lakers (AW: 63.4, VD +13.4, HL 71/53, PP 71, 💍8)
I’ll give this to 2K — their Overall Rating for the Lakers, better than every other team in the league, is absolutely how the Lakers are treated. Los Angeles is the dominant team in the NBA — usually having the best record in the league, often winning the championship, usually getting the MVP and Coach of the Year, and a few times, chasing the Warriors’ record of 73 regular-season wins. In other words, 2K expects this to be one of the greatest teams of all time — that ridiculous Playoff Points of 71 is significantly higher than that Spurs number I used as a baseline for excellence above.
At the core of this process: the Lakers’ role-players are all rated as their best-case-scenario. Danny Green, of course, is known to be a perfect complementary piece to a contender, but the rest? Kuzma is a borderline All-Star in the game; McGee, Howard, and Rondo are great role-players; Bradley and Caldwell-Pope are useful contributors. All of these things are dubious, all combined, they make the Lakers so good that even long-term injuries to either Lebron or AD don’t excessively derail the Lakers in the regular season, and only those seem to stop them from major playoff success. (I even tested how good those role-players were in an experiment — see below.)
Verdict: Definitely overrated. The Lakers are certainly in the top six or so of contenders by most accounts, but they’re not clearly above the others (Sixers, Bucks, Rockets, Warriors, Clippers, maybe Jazz). A Twitter friend told me that 2K always overrated Lebron’s role players and the Lakers — a ruthless combination in this incarnation of the game — and one that I had to test.
The Experiment
After a dozen or so seasons, I got sick of seeing the Lakers being so dominant, while several teams, particularly the Pacers, were treated so poorly. This seemed to happen even when the Lakers had one or two injuries — only multiple major injuries at a time derailed them. This, to me, indicated that the game thought that the Lakers were a good team even without Lebron and Davis. So I decided to trade them for replacement-level stars. Conveniently, the other team I was frustrated with, the Pacers, has two stars that fit the bill perfectly: Victor Oladipo and Myles Turner, who fill similar roles but would never be mistaken for being as great currently.
I traded them for each other and simmed the season. I expected, if the Lakers’ role players were good, they’d be a really good team still — 50-55 wins. I expected similarly from the Pacers — bad role-players but better stars. (I also turned off Oladipo’s injury, and made sure none of the four stars involved had season-ending injuries during this sim.)
The results were close to what I expected. Los Angeles had 50 wins, and Indiana had 60. The latter, I realized, was probably expected based on the weakness of the East, while the former would still be considered a really good season and a potential championship contender.
Above: What happens in NBA 2K20 when I trade the Lakers’ stars for the Pacers’?
There are a lot of ways to interpret the data here, and with just one simmed season, it’s not a good sample size. But given the struggles of Indiana to break even .500, the fact that their stars can lead a team to 50 wins in the more-difficult West is extremely telling. My general takeaway from this: NBA 2K20 believes that the Lakers’ role-players and infrastructure are at least 10 wins better than Indiana’s. Given that I’d take Sabonis and Brogdon over any two non-star Lakers, and that Vogel versus McMillan as coaches is probably a wash … this seems absurd.
2. Houston Rockets (AW 58.6, VD +4.1, H/L 66/51, PP 47, 💍1)
A team that two years ago probably should have won the championship added Russell Westbrook and went all-in again, and the game manifests that as a top-four contender: The Rockets are consistently in the top half of the West and regularly winning playoff series, even the occasional championship.
As a side note, when running seasons where I managed injuries, and then paying attention to other sims, I almost never saw a Rockets player more important than Eric Gordon have a major injury. This, I think, explains why their regular season rating is notably better than their (still-good!) playoff performance.
Verdict: Just about on the money. I definitely think the Rockets are almost certainly to be in the mix like this throughout the season — my only issue is that they’re a bit too consistent, when there’s a small chance that the Westbrook experiment will fail miserably.
3. Philadelphia 76ers (AW: 57.75, VD +2.75, HL 67/49, PP 76, 💍5)
In the simulation, the Sixers are to the East what the Lakers are to the West: definitely the best team in their conference, but definitely weaker, just like their conference. They usually lead the East, often make the Finals, and sneak away with a good number of championships. Brett Brown will sometimes even get Coach of the Year.
But the real reason they’re so dominant — a higher Playoff Points than the Lakers! — is that the rest of the East is much weaker in the game than we might expect. Their lead rival, the Bucks, are inconsistent, while possible contenders in reality like the Pacers and Heat rarely make the playoffs in the game.
Verdict: A bit overrated. The Sixers are a monster team on paper, quite literally, with their five starters all being much taller than average and with terrifying wingspans. They’re definitely one of the strongest championship contenders. The only two reasons I think they’re overvalued: They’re a bit too consistent, as they have major offensive questions without Redick and Butler; and the rest of the East is presented as a bit too weak, so the Sixers are almost always the team that takes advantage.
4. Los Angeles Clippers (AW 56.1, VD +1.6, H/L 64/48, PP 55, 💍5)
With two superstars in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George added to a group of very good role players, the Clippers are probably the only team everyone agrees should be a championship contender.
The Clippers are treated as an excellent team, always making the playoffs in the top half of the West, and sometimes busting through and winning the championship.
Verdict: A bit underrated, but only because the Lakers are so much better. The Clippers are probably the second-best team in the West in the game, but they’re clearly behind their rivals. The raw numbers are probably right, but being the fourth-best team is a bit off.
5. Milwaukee Bucks (AW 50.85, VD -7.15, H/L 64/42, PP 42)
The Bucks’ odd 89 rating, carried over from NBA 2K19, makes even less sense here. This team has arguably the best player in the league, Giannis; had the best record in the league last season; and made the conference finals. Losing some key role players in Brogdon and Mirotic hurts, but there’s no reason to expect that this team won’t be a contender in the upcoming season … except that 2K, apparently, doesn’t.
While they do make the playoffs consistently, the Bucks vary wildly between being a .500 team and a good contender. They almost never lead the conference, let alone the league, and they don’t win the championship, only managing a couple Finals appearances. Giannis does win the MVP decently regularly, but that’s small consolation. Even the years when they do really well in the regular season, they flame out in the playoffs.
Verdict: Underrated. Some of the Bucks’ inconsistency can be blamed on 2K thinking they’re injury-prone, especially George Hill and Brook Lopez, but even with that, this team should be treated as at least co-favorites in the East with the Sixers. Instead, they’re one of half a dozen mid-tier playoff teams in the East. Ouch.
6. Golden State Warriors (AW 48.5, VD 0, H/L 59/37, PP 32)
The Warriors head into the season one of the most fascinating teams in the league, having lost Durant and Andre Iguodala, but added D’Angelo Russell, in addition to waiting for Thompson to heal.
NBA 2K20 largely models this, with the Warriors being a wild card, but consistently good, throughout the West — sometimes taking a higher seed, sometimes sneaking into the bottom of the playoffs and wreaking havoc. And Steph, well, galaxy mode Steph is an MVP candidate.
Above: The Warriors going on a 20-game winning streak when Klay Thompson gets healthy? Sounds about right.
Verdict: Exactly right on the averages (look at that perfect Vegas Differential!), a bit off on the variations. Look, we know what a core of Steph, Klay, and Dray can do in real life: They won 73 games and a championship, albeit in different seasons. But the Warriors never even make the Finals in my sims. There’s also a version of this where their role-players flame out, the rest of the West is great, and they don’t even make the playoffs — 2K only barely offers that. Still, in every simmed season, the Dubs do what I expect in most real seasons.
7. Portland Trail Blazers (AW: 46.85, VD +0.35, H/L 53/37, PP 26, 💍1)
The Blazers were the No. 3-seed in the West the last two seasons, and made the conference finals last year. With their core intact, and their third star, Jusuf Nurkic, returning from injury at some point, this should make them a major contender in the West. But as the rest of the West shifted their stars around in attempts to get slightly better, the Blazers only swapped role players. Of the seven major Western contenders, Portland may have the least exciting narrative … but that doesn’t mean they’re not a player.
NBA 2K20 models this: The Blazers are consistently in the mix in the Western Conference, rarely missing the playoffs, but also once winning a championship(!). Two interesting things I’ve noticed: Portland almost always starts the season poorly, then surges in the middle months; and that their record tends to be similar whether I made major trades for Kevin Love or Kelly Olynyk or keep their intact.
Verdict: Exactly right. 2K models the Blazers as a team that could be a huge problem for their competitors, or one that might be easily dispatched.
8. Denver Nuggets (AW: 46.8, VD -6.2, H/L 57/34, PP 21)
The Nuggets are similar to the Blazers in that they’re a team that did very well last season — second in the West, with a rapidly developing set of young stars — but one that mostly stood pat while almost every team around them changed dramatically.
Denver is one of those big seven Western Conference teams that all have a chance at being contenders, and 2K models that, though a bit weaker than the Blazers. Denver usually makes the playoffs, and they’ll win a series occasionally, but only make the conference finals once.
Verdict: Slightly underrated. NBA and Nugget observer Matt Moore, aka Hardwood Paroxysm, has noticed that Denver’s record last year was inflated by a lucky high number of wins in close games, and that may revert to the mean. That should, in his words, mean that the Nuggets will likely be a better team with a worse record. The record seems about right, but the better team idea — which would manifest in the playoffs — is off. (The culprit for that is likely a surprisingly low rating for shooting guard Gary Harris, who might well be a budding star, but 2K gives him a “pretty good starter” rating of 79.)
9. Utah Jazz (AW 44.9, VD -9.6, H/L 55/36, PP 23)
The Jazz have been a solid regular-season team in the West in the past couple of seasons, although not one that’s had a ton of playoff success. Their additions of Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic upgrade the team at the exact positions that should push them from “solid” to “contender” — and they were one of the first teams over the chaotic summer to be seen that way.
But 2K tends to disagree, with the Jazz the weakest of the big seven Western Conference teams, even missing the playoffs if a few of the lower-tier franchises get frisky. They also never make the Finals, although they can cause some entertaining upsets.
Verdict: Undervalued. The pundits were swift to declare the Jazz a contender when they acquired Conley, though I’m a bit more skeptical. That said, this is not a team that should struggle to make the playoffs, and NBA 2K20 has that happen a bit too often (one-fifth of my seasons) for my liking.
10. Boston Celtics (AW 44.9, VD -4.6, H/L 57/34, PP 32)
For the past several seasons, Boston collected an amazing set of assets — stars in their prime, good young players, and draft picks. After making the conference finals twice, Boston seemed ready to make good on those assets. They had a superteam with three stars, multiple young role players, and a superb coach. But when it came to actually playing the games, those assets turnout out to be people, and people who really didn’t get along or want to play tough basketball games together. That’s bad!
Boston got rid of a few of those assets — especially annoying star Kyrie Irving — and enters the 2019-’20 season a bit sleeker, probably more fun, and probably a worse team on paper. The Celtics should have a wildly variable set of options, from being a contender to struggling to make the playoffs. 2K20 largely models this — the Celtics can compete for best record in the East or maybe make the conference finals, but they also might miss the playoffs.
Verdict: Dead on. Boston fans especially high on Brown and Tatum may think the team should have a championship ceiling, but that’s pretty hard to see barring a sensational step forward. I’m cool with wild and frisky.
On the next (and last) page, the last 20 teams, including contenders that shouldn’t be, the shockingly good Bulls, and the shockingly bad Pacers.
