11. Brooklyn Nets (AW 44.3, VD +0.3, H/L 53/38, PP 43)
The Nets would be one of the most difficult teams to predict in the NBA in most situations — a good young team on the rise that trades a budding star in D’Angelo Russell for a legit, if mercurial, superstar in Kyrie Irving. But then you add in that they’ve added arguably the best player in the world, Kevin Durant, but one with an injury that may keep him out for possibly the entire season, and then maybe not even come back the same? There’s a version of the Nets where KD returns at the end of the season and they blaze through the East playoffs, or a version where they stagnate and get a low seed … or miss the playoffs entirely.
2K models these alternatives pretty well — the best Nets do make the Finals a few times, while the team always makes the playoffs even if it occasionally does nothing in them. (In one of my funniest seasons, they got into the playoffs with 38 wins and then made the Finals with KD healthy. (These simulations were done before GM Sean Marks announced KD’s return was unlikely this season. If you check out the full seasonal data, those in which KD didn’t come back at all are the last 6 or 7. –Ed.)
Verdict: Just about right in the regular season, probably overrated in the playoffs — even without KD. This has much more to do with the game devaluing the East in general, especially the Bucks, who should be consistently a top-2 team in the conference. Instead, the Nets are occasionally put in that position, and they’re even the second-best Eastern team by Playoff Points.
12. Toronto Raptors (AW 43, VD -3, H/L 54/35, PP 27)
The champs, like their defeated foes in the Finals Golden State, enter the season as a major wildcard having lost their superstar Kawhi Leonard in free agency. Are the role-players and budding/former stars enough to stay in contention? Will they flame out without Leonard as the glue holding them together? Is Pascal Siakam ready to be a superstar?
These huge questions make the Raptors tough to predict. NBA 2K20 generally has them as a playoff team, and one that can make the conference finals, but not a contender.
Verdict: Overrated, but not in and of themselves, because of their conference. I like the Raptors’ numbers on their own, but because the East (outside the Sixers) is such a crapshoot, they end up with high playoff seeds a little too often.
13. Oklahoma City Thunder (AW 42.95, VD +11.45, H/L 52/27, PP 20)
The Thunder lost their two biggest stars — Russell Westbrook and Paul George — and acquired past and future (but not current) stars in return: Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This makes them a compelling team, and one where a best-case scenario of players who’ve been stuck in Westbook or others’ shadows step up and make this a solid playoff team. (Also if top-tier defender Andre Roberson returns from injury successfully.) Worst-case scenario? CP3 is disengaged, Shai isn’t quite ready, and the other players are good but not great, which is nowhere near good enough in a hyper-competitive West.
NBA 2K20 takes the best-case scenario at probably every level with the Thunder, making them not just a playoff team but also an occasional conference finals-level playoff team, and the last team with an above-.500 average win total.
Verdict: Overrated, but not quite so massively as the Vegas Differential might look like. OKC should be a solid team no matter what, but solid may look bad in the West. The difference between eighth-best, which they are here, and 12-best is not gonna be huge, and there’s no reason the Thunder can’t win that race.
14. San Antonio Spurs (AW 41.15, VD -6.35, H/L 50/35, PP 12)
The Spurs remain good, which on one hand seems like the most normal thing in the NBA world, but on the other, when you look at their aging or unheralded roster, is a huge shock. This is a team that due to injuries and free agency spent last season basically without a point guard, and then made the playoffs and made Derrick White look like a star-in-the-making. Are they good? I mean, yes, but should they be? Will it all fall apart?
NBA 2K20 basically splits the difference, making the Spurs the closest team to .500 in its sims, and basically making the question whether the West has room for them in the playoffs or not (usually not). Not only is their record consistently right in the middle, but their High/Low differential is the smallest in the game for a team that makes the playoffs regularly.
Verdict: The Spurs are consistently OK-to-pretty good. Without a superstar? That sounds right on the money.
15. Detroit Pistons (AW 40.7, VD +2.7, H/L 55/25, PP 18)
Last year, Detroit’s big gambles on Blake Griffin and trading several of their young players paid dividends when they … made it into the playoffs on the last day. The Bucks then swept them. Without major changes from last year to this, the Pistons would seem to be stuck in roughly the same place.
By raw data, the Pistons largely stick with that — they won 41 games last season, and averaged that in my sims. But because the East is so surprisingly weak and inconsistent, occasionally the Pistons were a top-4 seed in the conference, and they make the playoffs three-quarters of the time. Their High/Low differential of 30 wins is the biggest of any simmed team, although to be fair, that 25-win season was a major aberration.
Verdict: Slightly overrated, but only because the rest of the East is underrated. In particular, Detroit’s constant presence in the playoff race means they never trade Griffin, something that’s very much on the table otherwise.
16. Chicago Bulls (AW 39.55, VD +6.05, H/L 48/30, PP 19)
After years of front-office chaos, the Bulls finally, perhaps accidentally, entered into a seemingly successful rebuilding phase. With budding stars like Wendell Carter and Lauri Markannen and other decent prospects, the Bulls seem to be on the right track to compete in the East in a few years …
… Except that NBA 2K20 thinks this is a playoff-ready team right now. The Bulls are regular competitors for playoff spots, and occasionally, they’re an upper-tier Eastern Conference team, both in record and in playoff success, making the conference finals a few times.
Verdict: Waaaaayyyy overrated. Bafflingly so! Even the biggest Bulls fan probably thinks their best-case scenario is sneaking into the playoffs for some big-game experience for this young team. Yet 2K thinks they’re in the scrum for Eastern contenders after the Sixers. I don’t get it.
17. Orlando Magic (AW 38.95, VD -3.05, H/L 49/24, PP 20)
Last season, the Magic improved incrementally, just enough to get into the playoffs for the first time in years, giving the eventual champion Toronto a slight jolt before falling quickly. This offseason they … attempted to improve incrementally.
Making a mediocre East team slightly better would normally not seem to do much, but in 2K20’s sim, where the entire conference after Philly is a total crapshoot? That means the Magic are actually a top-4 playoff team occasionally. And also miss the playoffs occasionally.
Verdict: Seems just about right, but in a way that’s really hard to care about. That perfectly normal 20 Playoff Points sums it up.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves (AW 37.65, VD +2.15, H/L 47/29, PP 3)
The young Wolves made the playoffs in 2018, then took a step back last year. But with star Jimmy Butler and coach Tom Thibodeau flaming out midseason, maybe last season was an aberration.
NBA 2K20 seems to think that might be the case, with Minnesota popping into the playoff race most seasons, although only making the big show three times.
Verdict: Even if Minnesota returns to its upward progress in the rebuild, the West is so ridiculous it seems difficult, but plausible, for this team to make the playoffs. Making it 3-out-of-20 seasons, with mid-30s wins most of the time? That sounds exactly right for this team — maybe the most exactly right of any team in the game.
19. New Orleans Pelicans (AW 37.35, VD -1.15, H/L 44/28, PP 3)
Many teams in the NBA blew up their rosters, but none did quite so spectacularly as the Pelicans, who: 1) won the NBA draft lottery and picked sure thing Zion Williamson, 2) traded Anthony Davis for three potentially good young Lakers, and 3) signed free agent vets who should be fantastic fits like Redick and Favors.
Above: Get used to Zion taking home hardware in NBA 2K20
On paper, the Pelicans should be a ton of fun, and if things click, a dark horse Western playoff team (and an almost certain one if they were in the East, bad luck). 2K generally models this, with this team (like Minnesota above) making the playoffs 3-of-20 times.
Verdict: A tiny bit overrated. The Pelicans probably should be in the mix for the playoffs, and probably should make them a few times. None of their seasons are outright bad in the sim, which seems like a reasonable real-world possibility with so many changes and unproven players in key roles.
20. Miami Heat (AW 36.45, VD -8.05, H/L 48/25, PP 8)
Miami was a borderline playoff team last year, although in the East, that’s not a huge achievement. But for the last several years, they’ve been a team that plays hard, maybe sneaks into the playoffs, and generally makes their opponents have to work for everything.
The Heat added Jimmy Butler, who in one sense is the NBA’s most blue-collar superstar, a man who never stops working oncourt, on both offense and defense. Alternately, they’ve added the NBA’s biggest diva in Butler, who pushed his way out of both Chicago and Minnesota in a little over a year, then bailed on Philadelphia as well. This is a switch that could make the Heat a contender in the East, or at least a step behind the Bucks and Sixers. Or it’s one that could leave them still spinning their wheels in the middle of nowhere, only with an unhappy star poisoning everything around them.
2K only models the mediocrity or the flameout — the one time the Heat actually do really well (48 wins), they lose in the first round.
Verdict: Not good enough, not at all. Having the Heat miss the playoffs half the time or more isn’t a huge issue, but not having the potential for them to even make the conference finals is a whiff, and another reason the East is predictable in the game.
21. Indiana Pacers (AW: 36.05, VD -11.45, H/L 42/27, PP 12)
Last season, Indiana was in the mix for a top seed in the East. Their star, Victor Oladipo, got injured, and they stayed strong, playing roughly .500 ball. They didn’t change their team too much — losing a few players like Thaddeus Young but adding Malcolm Brogdon. There’s no reason to expect the Pacers to be significantly worse, and plenty of reason to think they might be a competitor in the East.
And yet … more than the Lakers, 2K just totally drops the ball on this one. The Pacers are barely even a playoff team, regardless of whether I have Oladipo come back earlier or later. They make the playoffs at the bottom of the East about half the time, but almost never crack .500. The only reason I can think of that this is the case is that I kept the “team chemistry” option on, and Indiana falls into a funk before Dipo comes back and never recovers. But plenty of teams, especially Portland, have consistently bad starts and then recover. Who knows!
Verdict: Terribly underrated, to the point where this might be the biggest point where the simulation fails. The experiment described above shows just how ridiculously undervalued the Pacers role players are, and the East being generally kinda boring flows from this.
22. Atlanta Hawks (AW 35.4, VD -0.6, 41/30, PP 5)
A few years ago, Atlanta was competing with Lebron and the Cavs as the best team in the East. But they got wiped out in the playoffs and pulled the trigger on a full rebuild. That rebuilt started coming into fruition late last season, with their youngsters Trae Young, John Collins, and Kevin Huertas looking like a potential competitive core for the future.
NBA 2K20, quite happily and unlike most other good young teams like the Nuggets or Kings, models that core getting consistently better, to the point where the Hawks manage to slip into the playoffs five times in my sims.
Verdict: Fine in and of themselves, but this team … team should probably not be treated in the same category as the Pacers and the Heat. Maybe I’m wrong, but it feels like Atlanta is probably another year away from sniffing the playoffs.
23. Phoenix Suns (AW 34.75, VD +5.25, 42/28, PP 2)
The Suns are interesting. Their chaotic front office and ownership situation makes them look like a total mess of a franchise, but on the court? They have two budding stars in Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, plus a strong set of role players who are actually in their prime surrounding them. Does this mean the Suns are good? Probably not. Does this mean the Suns can be good? I mean, all the ingredients are there, right?
NBA 2K20 largely models this: The Suns do manage to play .500 ball in the tough West a few times and get into the playoffs. But like the Hawks, they seem like they’re a year away.
Verdict: A little high, but mostly because the Suns are treated better than the Mavericks and the Kings — those are also two interesting young teams that I think most people would say are closer to the playoffs than Phoenix, but never sniff a playoff spot.
24. Sacramento Kings (AW 33.35, VD -5.15, 40/26, PP 0
After over a decade of disaster, last year’s young Kings played fast, fun, effective basketball, winning a ton of fans and finishing ninth in the West. Normally, player development and building on relative success, you’d pick a team like that to make the playoffs this year. But things were very much not normal this offseason, with almost every other pretty good team in the West getting better, leaving Sacramento in a position where it’s difficult to see them even competing for a playoff spot.
NBA 2K20 agrees with that, with the Kings never making the playoffs, and only really competing for a spot about a fourth of the time.
Verdict: Underrated. Yeah, it’s tough to see the Kings making the playoffs, but it’s not impossible — even if 2K simmed seasons say it is.
Above: NBA 2K20’s Power Rankings seemed to have the Mavericks too low. But they’re even worse than that in the game.
25. Dallas Mavericks (AW 30.3, VD -11.2, H/L 39/21, PP 0)
The Mavericks are a fascinating team going into this season. They have European sensation Luka Doncic on a fast track to superstardom, and famous unicorn Kristaps Porzingis, back after 20 months off from injury. Backing them up, the Mavs have a set of really interesting young players and veteran role-players. Two stars with their own questions surrounded by a motley crew of role-players? Sounds like half the teams in the league, up to and including the Lakers!
But because Doncic and Porzingis are so young, so unproven, and also so potentially perfect together, the Mavericks are almost impossible to predict. Vegas’ 41.5 win estimate — almost exactly .500 — seems like the equivalent of a giant “throw your money away!” shrug. Another year of growing pains? Possible. Sneaking into the playoffs? Plausible. An utter disaster? Unlikely, but could happen. Start well, swing a trade for Bradley Beal, and be a major contender in the West? I mean … it’s not off the table.
Except in NBA 2K20, it is off the table. The Mavericks are bad in the game. There’s no real way around it — they never make the playoffs, let alone getting to that 41-win spot of breaking even. Only twice in my 20 seasons do they win enough games to even compete for a playoff spot, with 38 and 39 wins. Doncic makes the All-Star team several times, and that’s the extent of good news for the Mavs.
Verdict: Terribly undervalued. That Vegas win total of 41.5 seems way high to me — this is too young of a team, in too tough of a conference … and even still I think 2K is ridiculous in how bad it makes this team.
26. New York Knicks (AW 29.9, VD +2.2, H/L 38/24, PP 2)
The Knicks got rid of their first home-grown star in years to make cap space to sign bigger stars and ended up with, uh, Julius Randle. They tanked to get Zion and ended up with the third pick, the much less certain prospect R.J. Barrett. In other words, this is a team without much of a plan or clear path forward.
(They do make the playoffs once, with 38 wins. And win their opening-round series! That is, at the least, hilarious.)
Verdict: But … even without the clear path, there’s a glimmer of something there. The young players aren’t disasters. The role-players they signed are pretty good. This probably won’t be anywhere near a good team, but having the Knicks be the best of the five awful teams, at least this season? That seems okay.
27. Charlotte Hornets (AW 29.1, VD +6.1, H/L 35/24, PP 0)
The Hornets have been stuck in mediocrity for a few years, and then lost their star, Kemba Walker. The result looks like a team with a bunch of overpaid role-players that would need a lot of luck and a collapse from competitors in the East to have a chance at the playoffs.
The general Eastern collapse happens in 2K20, and the Hornets’ high win total of 35 could get them into the playoffs in some especially terrible years … but it doesn’t actually happen in my simmed seasons. This team is bad, at best merely “pretty bad.”
Verdict: At a certain level, once a team doesn’t make the playoffs, it doesn’t really matter, and in that respect, the Hornets are dead-on. But this team is unlikely to be relevant in any way whatsoever, making their spot above three other teams a teensy bit overrated.
28. Cleveland Cavaliers (AW 27.9, VD +3.4, H/L 36/11, PP 0)
Since Lebron left, the Cavs have been forced into an ugly and likely long-lasting rebuilding process. This is not a good team, and they seem to, at best, have a collection of young role-players, with no clear way forward. Weird, right? Cleveland is in a bad place with one of their sports teams!
The Cavs are, unsurprisingly, bad in NBA 2K20, but not the worst, usually. There are only really two things interesting about simming this team. In one season, and one season only, they get in the mix for worst team of all time, only winning 11 games (the record worst is 9). The other is that, when fully simmed, they never trade Kevin Love, who is almost certainly going to be considered on the trading block for the entire year.
Verdict: Bad as expected, so that’s just fine. But the lack of aggression from the CPU trading is a little odd, although because I’m simming single seasons instead of a career where draft picks can be traded, maybe that makes sense.
29. Washington Wizards (AW 26.15, VD -0.35, H/L 37/18, PP 0)
Remember above when I noted how strange it was that the Wizards and Nuggets had pretty much the same overall rating? Well, unlike the Lakers, that one was not predictive — the Wizards, despite the 18th-best rating, are almost the worst team in the league. This is … pretty much accurate to everyone’s expectations for this team, which has one of the most difficult rebuilding jobs in the league in front of it.
Verdict: I kinda like that the Wizards are borderline playoff-level in a couple seasons, but putrid otherwise. The question marks around this team might lead them to mediocre in a best-case scenario … but not often. Perfect rating, with the exception of the same thing as the Cavs and Love above, where they never trade Beal on their own.
30. Memphis Grizzlies (AW 24.25, VD -3.25, H/L 32/17, PP 0)
This offseason, the Grizz finally traded the last piece of their “Grit ‘n’ Grind” era, with Mike Conley going to the Jazz. They’re well set up for whatever their next era might be, thanks to potential young stars Jaren Jackson and Ja Morant. But that’s a few years away, if it happens.
NBA 2K20 treats the Grizzlies as the worst team in the league by average wins — but this is slightly misleading. The four other worst teams above them are all in the East, and all pad their wins by playing each other more often. By virtue of being the only awful team in the West, the Grizzlies end up with the worst record.
Verdict: Once again, can’t complain about a bad team looking bad in the game. Only surprise is that this team doesn’t get rid of veteran leader Andre Iguodala at all, either via trade or buyout — the latter an option that AI teams don’t seem to use at all. Morant does win Rookie of the Year a few times, especially if Zion gets hurt, a good touch for a team that might compete in, uh, 2023.
